Vol. 108: Siddig, Khalid H.A.: Macroeconomy and Agriculture in Sudan

Similar to many sub-Saharan African countries, Sudan has inherited a dual economy in the immediate post-independence era where a large agriculture-based rural traditional sector coexisted with a small non-agricultural modern sector. This functional dualism remained until the first oil shipment from the country in 1999. In addition, the inexperienced institutions that took over the management of the economy led to severe interdependent structural problems that slowed growth especially during the 1970s. In addition, the agricultural policies, which have been followed since the mid 1960s, favored the expansion of cash crops, motivated by their high export value, and overlooked the important contribution of food crops cultivation in ensuring food security. To tackle these problems, consecutive governments launched series of development plans the majority of which were either adjusted or terminated due to policy failure or government change. Apart from the planning problems, the recurrent drought, civil conflicts, and recently economic sanctions have aggravated the situation. Against this background, this book provides comprehensive assessment and deploys analytical tools that simulate various policy options for Sudan taking into account all these interrelated problems. The book takes up these issues in a framework of single country and global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models together with their detailed Input/output Table (IOT) and Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The analysis proved the appropriateness of these tools for simulating a wide range of policy interventions and external shocks, including trade liberalization, exchange rate devaluation, taxation, agricultural efficiency improvement, drought, and economic sanctions. This value added is particularly evident in light of the shortcomings of other approaches that were employed for similar goals, and their lack of the analytical depth of CGE models reflected in their inability to capture intersectoral forward and backward linkages.

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